What are the chances? (Math 1512, Post 3)

What are the chances? Some thoughts on probability...

What is probability? Simply put, probability is the use of numbers to describe and determine the chance of an event or outcome happening. So simple right? Well, sometimes probability problems can get confusing or complicated because instead of solving a problem that is concrete, probability problems deal with events and situations that most of the time have not happened yet. For myself, and some of the students I have worked with, this less concrete way of thinking can "trip" you up. It all depends on your learning style - which itself is a topic for another day!

I am more of a concrete thinker. So having a plan of action when I work on problems like this is very helpful. I have just 4, count it 1.. 2.. 3..  4 simple steps to be more successful when working on probability problems.

1. Clearly understand the event - This means asking questions like... What does the situation involve? What needs to be determined? What are the key points of data shared in this problem? Understanding exactly what you need to find will help save a lot of time and prevent you from determining the outcome of an event that you don't need to.
2. Select a model for the event - Models can help you visually determine and develop a plan when approaching a new problem. Ask questions like... Should the answer be estimated or calculated? What method of calculation should I use? What strategies might be useful here?
3. Conduct trials using the model - Implement the strategies you determined will be helpful, more simply choose one and test it! (This is where you will get an answer.)
4. Look back - Ask the important questions that review your strategies, implications, and solutions you determined and worked out... Is the answer reasonable? Are the calculations correct? 

If you are a concrete thinker like myself or if you have students that learn this way, try it out. Let me know how it works for you. If there is one thing I've learned by growing up it is this - There is nothing as helpful as taking your time and being prepared. Think about it.